Category Archives: 1

Do strange scenarios help us ask why not?

People are working on making robot cars communicate, with pedestrians for instance.

Notice that the apparent benefit of having cars communicate with pedestrians doesn’t actually have much to do with robots driving the cars. If having cars signal to pedestrians is useful, probably so is having drivers signal to pedestrians. Yet current cars and driving norms hardly provide for this at all. Many a time I have thought about this when trying to cross a road when there is a car coming toward me that seems to be slowing down, kind of, and whose windscreen I can’t really see through. Is the driver waving to me? Eating a sandwich? Hard to tell, so I won’t take my chances. Ah, now he’s stopped. And he’s annoyed. Or swatting a fly. Does that mean he’s about to go? Hard to tell, maybe I’ll just wait a sec to be sure. Now he’s really annoyed – annoyed enough to give up and drive on?… If only there were some little signal that meant ‘while this signal is on, I see you and am stopping for you’.

This is not my real point, but an example. Thinking about a strange future of robot cars causes us to make predictions and envision potentially valuable additions to it that have little to do with robot cars. Similarly, thinking about future AI development causes people to wonder if sudden leaps in technological capacity could cause a small portion of humanity to get far ahead of the rest, or if human values might be lost in the long run. These issues are not specific to AI. Yet when we look at the world around us we seem less likely to see ways to improve it, or to wonder why no groups of humans do get ahead of the rest technologically, or even notice that technological changes tend to be relatively small, or to ask what is becoming of our values.

In general it seems that thinking about strange scenarios causes people expect things to happen which have little to do with the scenarios. Since they have little to do with the scenarios, it makes sense to ask why they haven’t already happened, or whether we could already benefit from them.

Some men see things as they are and say, why? I dream of things the way they never were and say, why not?

– Robert F. Kennedy, after George Bernard Shaw

Dreaming of the way things never were seems more impressive, difficult, and useful. Perhaps thinking of strange scenarios is one way to do it more easily.

A scene I once saw

(inaccurately recounted)

Ms. Knox: When any of you feels ready, you can move in to the center of the circle, hold the stone, and tell us all about your feelings about what we are doing. Listen to the trees moving, encouraging you.

Sarah: I feel really proud. Young people are so passionate about the environment. Everyone will have to believe in us when they see how much we care.

Amanda: Excited! I feel like we are going to be part of a really positive change, across the world. It’s so great to be here now, when this is happening.

Marie: I’m just really glad to be here with so many likeminded people. When nobody around you sees what’s possible, it can be really disillusioning, but here I feel like everyone cares so much.

Linda: I feel really inspired by what the others are saying!

Becky: I’m so hopeful when I see all this engagement. I believe we can all stay passionate and keep the movement going until we are old, and inspire the new youth!

Odette: Irritated! I have so many things I would enjoy doing more than saving the environment, both this weekend and for the rest of my life. Preventing ecological catastrophe is very important, but I’d obviously much much prefer that someone else had done it already, or that it never needed doing. It’s extremely disappointing that after this many generations nobody’s got around to the most obvious solutions like taxing the big externalities. These things are not even interesting to think about. In a perfect world it would be nice to play video games most of the time, but I’m at least as frustrated that I won’t even get to work on the interesting altruistic endeavors.

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Why is this so rare?

More convergent instrumental goals

Nick Bostrom follows Steve Omohundro in exploring the types of instrumental goals that intelligences with arbitrary ultimate goals might converge on. This is important for two reasons. First, it means predicting the behavior of arbitrary intelligences might be a tiny bit easier than you’d think. Second, because it draws attention to the difficulty of creating a creature that doesn’t want to get mixed up in taking resources and seeking longevity and that sort of thing.

Between Nick and Steve we have these convergent instrumental goals:

  1. Self-preservation
  2. Preserve your values
  3. self-improvement
  4. rationality
  5. other cognitive enhancement
  6. technological perfection
  7. get resources
  8. Avoid counterfeit utility

I think acquiring information is included in cognitive enhancement here, though to me it seems big and different enough that I’d put it by itself.

I’d like to add three more, incidentally all to do with interacting with other intelligences. So not relevant if you are the one all powerful singleton, but  handy if there are a number of AIs which are of a similar enough level that they might be useful to one another (like sheep and humans are, or humans and humans are). Here’s my list:

Spread your values
This can be achieved by making other entities which have at least some of the same values, or more traditionally by buying advertising space, exercising social influence, or having children. This makes sense for the same reason that ensuring that you maintain your values in the future does. If you think of yourself as just your values (as Bostrom mentions might be appropriate for some kinds of intelligences), spreading values can come under the heading of self-preservation perhaps (or reproduction). But usually we don’t think like this. If I convince you that Bach is pretty good, we don’t think of this as me replacing part of you with part of me. So I think it’s worth having a different category.

Social influence
If you can’t get others to have your values, the next best thing is to get them to do what you want anyway. This can be done in many ways, e.g. deceit, deals, forming relationships with useful people, sending good signals, being likable. Perhaps manipulating others comes under perfection of technology: making friends is in a way like better programming your computer to do what you type in. Both can be seen as investing some effort in arranging a complex system such that in future you will get what you want from it with less input. But not that close, so I give these things a new category. The extent to which it is worth influencing other intelligences depends on how useful they are. If the world only had me and sheep and stupider things in it, influencing sheep would be handy, but not nearly as handy as social skills are to me in this world. The next can be thought of as a subcategory of this one.

Acquire commonly valued goods
Nick and Steve mention acquiring ‘resources’, but from their elaboration it seems like they mean goods that are direct inputs to the intelligence’s goals. An instrumental goal to acquiring directly useful resources is acquiring stuff that is valuable to someone else. This apparently roundabout route is common because of comparative advantage. So while an AI would presumably like to have energy and fast hardware, it would also like a yacht or intellectual property rights for a new kind of frozen dinner, assuming anyone exists who will trade. With few assumptions, acquiring something like the latter will be easier than acquiring the former directly. This is pretty much what humans spend their working lives on.

Updated blog summary

I have updated the summary of every post on my blog, to include all the posts since last time, more than a year ago.

Epistemology of evilness

Most everyone seems to think that a big reason for bad things happening in the world is that some people are bad. Yet I almost never see advice for telling whether you yourself are a bad person, or for what to do about it if you seem to be one. If there are so many bad people, isn’t there a very real risk that you are one of them?

Perhaps the model is one where you automatically know whether you are good or bad, and simply choose which to be. So the only people who are bad are those who want to be bad, and know that they are bad. But then if there is this big population of bad people out there who want to be bad, why is so little of the media devoted to their interests? There’s plenty on how to do all the good things that a good person would want to do, such as voting for the benefit of society, looking after your children, buying gifts, expressing gratitude to friends, holding a respectable dinner, pleasing your partner. Yet so little on scamming the elderly, effectively shaking off useless relatives, lying credibly, making money from investments that others are too squeamish to take, hiding bodies. Are the profit-driven corporate media missing out on a huge opportunity?

If there aren’t a whole lot of knowingly bad people out there who want to be bad, and could use some information and encouragement, then either there aren’t bad people at all, or bad people don’t know that they are bad or don’t want to be bad. The former seems unlikely, by most meanings of ‘bad’. If the latter is true, why are people so blase about the possibility that they themselves might be bad?

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Prompted by the excellent book Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, in which there is much talk of avoiding becoming ‘dark’, in stark contrast to the world that I’m familiar with. If you enjoy talking about HPMOR, and live close to Pittsburgh, come to the next Pittsburgh Less Wrong Meetup.